Le Havre 4-4 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Metz travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Le Havre — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Metz have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Metz have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Le Havre are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Metz and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Le Havre 0–0 Metz — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Metz in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 48% | Metz 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.775 / defence 0.757 | Metz attack 0.658 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.284. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Metz's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Metz's attack rating of 0.658 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Le Havre have a tight defence (rating 0.757), which is pulling Metz's projected output down. Data: built from Le Havre's last 64 games and Metz's last 30.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.77 | Draw 3.45 | Metz 6.92. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Metz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 50% (last 10 home games) | Metz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Le Havre 1.50 / Metz 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.775 / def 0.757 | Metz attack 0.658 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Metz xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Metz FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Metz kick off?
Le Havre vs Metz kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Le Havre 4 - 4 Metz.
Where is Le Havre vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Metz part of?
Le Havre vs Metz is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 57% chance of winning, Metz a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Le Havre and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Le Havre vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.78x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 64 games and Metz's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
57%
1.77
29%
3.45
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.14
0.64
Metz xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
30.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.64 for Metz, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 16W 16D 32L from 64 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 26L across 64 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Metz on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 8W 9D 15L from their last 32 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 9W 7D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.42 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
Le Havre (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Le Havre vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Metz in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 16D 32L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.03 PPG; Metz away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Le Havre's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
4
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Metz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 1, Metz have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 59%, Metz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Le Havre and 66% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 34% of games; Metz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Metz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Le Havre's games and 59% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Le Havre and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Le Havre's matches and 66% of Metz's.
Do Le Havre and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Le Havre's recent matches and 78% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Metz share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Metz finished level at 4-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 0.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.78 / defence 0.76 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 48%, Metz 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Metz 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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