Angers 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond-Kopa. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Angers against 0.90 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Angers have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Le Havre in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Angers lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Le Havre — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 36% versus Le Havre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 30% | Le Havre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.19 xG and Le Havre 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.738 / defence 0.957 | Le Havre attack 0.712 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.197. Angers's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Angers games / 63 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Le Havre 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 30% | Le Havre 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Angers 1.19 / Le Havre 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.738 / def 0.957 | Le Havre attack 0.712 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Angers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Le Havre xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Le Havre kick off?
Angers vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Angers 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Angers vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Le Havre part of?
Angers vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 44% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Angers and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Angers and Le Havre in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.74x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.71x) against Angers's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
44%
2.27
32%
3.17
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Angers xG
Total xG
2.01
0.82
Le Havre xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Angers and 0.82 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Angers have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 19W 12D 32L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 16W 15D 32L from 63 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Angers against 1.00 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (11W 5D 15L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 8W 6D 17L from 31 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.02 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 12D 32L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 15D 32L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Le Havre away?
Angers's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.23 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Angers 1-1 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 39%, Le Havre 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Angers) and 42% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 36% of games; Le Havre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Angers's recent matches and 52% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Angers's recent games and 42% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Le Havre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Le Havre finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.19 xG and Le Havre 0.82 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.74 / defence 0.96 against Le Havre attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Le Havre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.10 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.