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Poisson model favours Lille (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lille face Le Havre.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Lille and Le Havre meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Lille (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season.

Le Havre have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Lille's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Across 5 previous meetings, Lille are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Lille winning.

The historical record gives Lille a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Lille — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Le Havre — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 49% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 46% | Le Havre 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.46 xG and Le Havre 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.914 / defence 0.806 | Le Havre attack 0.720 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.296. Data: 65 Lille games / 65 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 18%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 5.56. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lille 40% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.

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