Estac Troyes vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lille at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Estac Troyes welcome Lille to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 2.10 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 2 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 53% versus Lille 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Lille 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.78 xG and Lille 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.700 / defence 0.962 | Lille attack 1.101 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lille's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 2 Estac Troyes games / 36 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 18% | Draw 32% | Lille 50%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 5.56 | Draw 3.12 | Lille 2.00. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Lille 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 18% | Draw 32% | Lille 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Estac Troyes 0.78 / Lille 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.700 / def 0.962 | Lille attack 1.101 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Lille kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Lille part of?
Estac Troyes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 18% chance of winning, Lille a 50% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Estac Troyes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.70) and Lille's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
18%
5.41
32%
3.16
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.20
1.42
Lille xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
4%
22.27
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.42 for Lille, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 36 games, going 21W 8D 7L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.81 PPG from 36 outings (19W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.97 PPG, Lille on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 14W 2D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.94 points per game from 18 outings (11W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lille in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Lille in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Lille have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Lille away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.44 PPG; Lille away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lille in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Lille runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2023, when Lille won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Lille?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Lille have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 June 2023, when Estac Troyes 1-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 56%, Lille 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estac Troyes) and 44% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lille in 44%; Lille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 28% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 44% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Lille tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lille in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.