Lille vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Nice travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Nice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lille, 4 for Nice and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nice in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 39% versus Nice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 37% | Nice 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.53 xG and Nice 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.916 / defence 0.795 | Nice attack 0.765 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Lille's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Lille games / 40 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 54% | Draw 27% | Nice 19%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Nice 5.26. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Nice lead the H2H ledger, but Lille carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lille 40% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 54% | Draw 27% | Nice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Lille 1.53 / Nice 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.916 / def 0.795 | Nice attack 0.765 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Lille (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Nice xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Nice kick off?
Lille vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nice part of?
Lille vs Nice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 54% chance of winning, Nice a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lille and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
Record (10 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 4 | Nice 4W.
What form are Lille and Nice in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Nice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.92) and Nice's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.77
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lille xG
Total xG
2.32
0.79
Nice xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
24.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lille and 0.79 for Nice, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Lille have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 22W 9D 10L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice's form line: 10W 14D 17L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lille have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, Nice have gone 3W 4D 13L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.12 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Nice in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 games (1.83 PPG), while Nice have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Nice away?
Lille's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.70 PPG; Nice away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Lille or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Nice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Nice 2-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Nice 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Lille) and 55% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Nice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lille's recent matches and 55% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Lille's recent games and 55% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Nice tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Nice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.