Lille vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Nice travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season.
Nice — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lille, 4 for Nice and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Nice in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 39% versus Nice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 39% | Nice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.71 xG and Nice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.995 / defence 1.014 | Nice attack 0.797 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Lille games / 36 Nice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 28% | Nice 22%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 4.55. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Nice lead the H2H ledger, but Lille carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Nice 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 28% | Nice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.71 / Nice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.995 / def 1.014 | Nice attack 0.797 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Nice xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Nice kick off?
Lille vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nice part of?
Lille vs Nice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 50% chance of winning, Nice a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
Record (10 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 4 | Nice 4W.
What form are Lille and Nice in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Nice (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.99) and Nice's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.57
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Lille xG
Total xG
2.79
1.08
Nice xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
25.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lille and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Lille and 1.08 for Nice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Lille have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 19W 8D 9L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice's form line: 7W 13D 16L from 36 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nice.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lille have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Nice have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.06 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Nice in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Nice have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Nice away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Nice away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Lille or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Nice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Nice won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Lille 0-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Nice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lille) and 56% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lille's recent matches and 56% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lille's recent games and 56% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Nice tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Nice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.