Le Havre vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Toulouse at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Toulouse winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Le Havre trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Toulouse trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 52% versus Toulouse 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 36% | Toulouse 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.02 xG and Toulouse 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.663 / defence 1.352 | Toulouse attack 1.127 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Le Havre games / 42 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 18% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 59%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Toulouse 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Toulouse 70% BTTS from recent games.

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