West Ham 2-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
West Ham welcome Everton to London Stadium in Premier League (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
West Ham — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
West Ham at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Everton have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.40 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for West Ham, 2 for Everton and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 9 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2025, ended West Ham 1–1 Everton — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 59% versus Everton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 54% | Everton 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: West Ham surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Everton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.37 xG and Everton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.081 / defence 0.999 | Everton attack 1.003 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.269. Data: built from West Ham's last 71 games and Everton's last 71.
Result probabilities: West Ham 38% | Draw 29% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.67 | Draw 3.40 | Everton 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: West Ham 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 38% | Draw 29% | Everton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG West Ham 1.37 / Everton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.081 / def 0.999 | Everton attack 1.003 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: West Ham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Everton xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Everton FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Everton kick off?
West Ham vs Everton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Everton?
West Ham 2 - 1 Everton.
Where is West Ham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Everton part of?
West Ham vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 38% chance of winning, Everton a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both West Ham and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.08x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 71 games and Everton's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
38%
2.67
29%
3.40
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.64
1.27
Everton xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for West Ham and 1.27 for Everton, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Ham come into this having played 71 games, going 19W 19D 33L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.34 PPG from 71 outings (24W 23D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.07 PPG, Everton on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Ham's home form reads 9W 9D 17L across their last 35 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 35 away games (13W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
West Ham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.15 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
West Ham (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ West Ham vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Everton in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 19W 19D 33L in their last 71 games (1.07 PPG), while Everton have gone 24W 23D 24L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.03 PPG; Everton away: 1.40 PPG.
Have West Ham or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Ham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Ham
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 5, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Everton?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 63%, Everton 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (West Ham) and 29% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Everton in 31%; West Ham have failed to score in 31% of games; Everton in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of West Ham's recent matches and 40% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of West Ham's recent games and 29% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of West Ham's recent matches and 60% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Everton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Everton 2-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.37 xG and Everton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Everton attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 38% | Draw 29% | Everton 33%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Everton 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.07 PPG, Everton 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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