Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Tottenham face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Tottenham — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Tottenham have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Arsenal stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arsenal have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Tottenham's games and 60% of Arsenal's (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and Arsenal's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Arsenal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Tottenham.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Tottenham 1–4 Arsenal — a Arsenal win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Arsenal have won 7 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 59% versus Arsenal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Arsenal 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tottenham surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Arsenal have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.895 / defence 1.159 | Arsenal attack 1.163 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.274. Arsenal bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Tottenham's projected output down. Data: built from Tottenham's last 64 games and Arsenal's last 65.
Result probabilities: Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 5.14 | Draw 3.41 | Arsenal 1.95. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and Arsenal's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 80% (last 10 home games) | Arsenal 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Tottenham 1.01 / Arsenal 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.895 / def 1.159 | Arsenal attack 1.163 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Arsenal xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tottenham vs Arsenal FAQs
What time does Tottenham vs Arsenal kick off?
Tottenham vs Arsenal kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Tottenham 1 - 4 Arsenal.
Where is Tottenham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Arsenal part of?
Tottenham vs Arsenal is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 19% chance of winning, Arsenal a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tottenham and Arsenal will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tottenham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tottenham's last 64 games and Arsenal's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
19%
5.14
29%
3.41
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.73
1.72
Arsenal xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
28.63
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.72 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 18W 13D 33L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Arsenal's form line: 36W 21D 7L from 64 games, 2.02 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 0.97 PPG from their last 32 home games (8W 7D 17L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 15W 13D 4L from their last 32 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.86 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
Tottenham (Home) vs Arsenal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tottenham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Tottenham vs Arsenal Form FAQs
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 18W 13D 33L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 36W 21D 7L in their last 64 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 0.97 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arsenal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won Tottenham 3-0 Arsenal.
Tottenham's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tottenham
1
Draws
8
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Tottenham vs Arsenal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tottenham have won 1, Arsenal have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Arsenal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 72%, Arsenal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Tottenham) and 41% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tottenham vs Arsenal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tottenham and Arsenal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Tottenham's games and 56% of Arsenal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tottenham and Arsenal matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Tottenham's recent games and 41% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tottenham and Arsenal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Tottenham's recent matches and 66% of Arsenal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 1-4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Arsenal outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Arsenal attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Arsenal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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