Liverpool 5-2 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs West Ham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and West Ham meet at Anfield in Premier League (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Liverpool have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Liverpool have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
West Ham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Liverpool, 1.20 for West Ham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Liverpool's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) — Liverpool have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, West Ham in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Liverpool have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins, with West Ham managing 1 and 1 draw.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Liverpool 2–0 West Ham — a Liverpool win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Liverpool and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.1 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
West Ham half-time and goal-timing data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Liverpool 60% and West Ham 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | West Ham 55%). Note also that West Ham surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Liverpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.66 xG and West Ham 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.052 / defence 0.947 | West Ham attack 0.971 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Data: built from Liverpool's last 65 games and West Ham's last 65.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 46% | Draw 30% | West Ham 24%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.17 | Draw 3.38 | West Ham 4.11. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Liverpool 7 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and West Ham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 60% (last 10 home games) | West Ham 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 46% | Draw 30% | West Ham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Liverpool 1.66 / West Ham 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.052 / def 0.947 | West Ham attack 0.971 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
1.17
West Ham xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs West Ham FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs West Ham kick off?
Liverpool vs West Ham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs West Ham?
Liverpool 5 - 2 West Ham.
Where is Liverpool vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs West Ham part of?
Liverpool vs West Ham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 46% chance of winning, West Ham a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Liverpool and West Ham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.05x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — West Ham's attack (0.97x) against Liverpool's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 65 games and West Ham's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.38
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.83
1.17
West Ham xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
5%
21.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs West Ham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Liverpool and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Liverpool and 1.17 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Liverpool have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 38W 15D 12L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
West Ham's form line: 17W 17D 31L from 65 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.19 PPG from their last 32 home games (21W 7D 4L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 9W 9D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.20 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; West Ham in 62%.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
West Ham
Blended
Liverpool (Home) vs West Ham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Liverpool vs West Ham Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and West Ham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 38W 15D 12L in their last 65 games (1.98 PPG), while West Ham have gone 17W 17D 31L in their last 65 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or West Ham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.19 PPG; West Ham away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Liverpool or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, West Ham in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Liverpool and West Ham, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Liverpool have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won West Ham 0-5 Liverpool on 29 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against West Ham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Liverpool
1
Draws
1
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs West Ham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and West Ham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 8, West Ham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Liverpool and West Ham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Liverpool 5-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and West Ham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 62%, West Ham 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 50% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs West Ham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and West Ham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Liverpool's games and 59% of West Ham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and West Ham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Liverpool's recent games and 50% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Liverpool and West Ham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Liverpool's recent matches and 75% of West Ham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 5-2 hammering of West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat West Ham 5-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.66 xG and West Ham 1.17 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Liverpool beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Ham outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against West Ham attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 46% | Draw 30% | West Ham 24%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, West Ham 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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