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Poisson model rates Everton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Newcastle — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.30 PPG, Everton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 4, Everton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Newcastle winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Newcastle trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Everton trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 55% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Everton 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.190 / defence 1.193 | Everton attack 0.906 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Everton's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Newcastle games / 65 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Everton 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 70% | Everton 30%.

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