Fulham 2-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Tottenham travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Fulham have won 3, Tottenham 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Fulham 2–1 Tottenham — a Fulham win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Tottenham in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 68% and Tottenham 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 58% | Tottenham 65%). Note also that Tottenham surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Fulham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.85 xG and Tottenham 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.160 / defence 1.053 | Tottenham attack 0.957 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.302. Data: built from Fulham's last 65 games and Tottenham's last 65.
Result probabilities: Fulham 48% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.09 | Draw 3.72 | Tottenham 3.96. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.31) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fulham's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 60% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 48% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Fulham 1.85 / Tottenham 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.160 / def 1.053 | Tottenham attack 0.957 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Fulham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Tottenham xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Tottenham kick off?
Fulham vs Tottenham kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Fulham 2 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Fulham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Tottenham part of?
Fulham vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 48% chance of winning, Tottenham a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Fulham and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fulham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.16) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 65 games and Tottenham's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.72
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.16
1.31
Tottenham xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
4%
25.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Fulham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fulham and 1.31 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 26W 13D 26L from 65 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 34L across 65 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.40 PPG, Tottenham on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 14W 7D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 10W 6D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.55 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Tottenham in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Fulham (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 26W 13D 26L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 18W 13D 34L in their last 65 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Tottenham away?
Fulham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fulham have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won Fulham 3-0 Tottenham.
Fulham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 4, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fulham and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Tottenham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 69%, Tottenham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Fulham and 59% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Tottenham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Fulham's games and 47% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fulham and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Fulham's matches and 59% of Tottenham's.
Do Fulham and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fulham's recent matches and 81% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Tottenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Tottenham 2-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.85 xG and Tottenham 1.31 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Tottenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 48% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 25%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 58%, Tottenham 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Tottenham 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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