Everton 1-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours Liverpool — this Everton vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Everton have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Liverpool — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Liverpool's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Everton) versus 1.60 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Liverpool have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Everton.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Everton 1–2 Liverpool — a Liverpool win.
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Liverpool 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 37% | Liverpool 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Liverpool have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.44 xG and Liverpool 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.986 / defence 0.939 | Liverpool attack 1.039 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.247. Data: built from Everton's last 70 games and Liverpool's last 70.
Result probabilities: Everton 40% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.49 | Draw 3.34 | Liverpool 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | Liverpool 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, matchday 33 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 40% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Everton 1.44 / Liverpool 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.986 / def 0.939 | Liverpool attack 1.039 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Everton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Liverpool xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Liverpool FAQs
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton 1 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Premier League fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 40% chance of winning, Liverpool a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.99x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 70 games and Liverpool's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.34
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Everton xG
Total xG
2.66
1.22
Liverpool xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Everton and 1.22 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 70 games, going 24W 23D 23L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 1.94 PPG from 70 outings (40W 16D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 11W 13D 11L across their last 35 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 1.69 points per game from their last 35 away games (17W 8D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 1.97 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 61%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
Everton (Home) vs Liverpool (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 24W 23D 23L in their last 70 games (1.36 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 40W 16D 14L in their last 70 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.31 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Liverpool in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Liverpool have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won Everton 1-4 Liverpool.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Liverpool H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 46%, Liverpool 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Everton) and 66% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Liverpool in 37%; Everton have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Liverpool Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Liverpool matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Everton's recent matches and 60% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Liverpool matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Everton's matches and 66% of Liverpool's.
Do Everton and Liverpool matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Everton's recent matches and 69% of Liverpool's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Liverpool defy the odds to beat Everton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Everton 1-2 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.44 xG and Liverpool 1.22 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Liverpool attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 40% | Draw 30% | Liverpool 30%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 37%, Liverpool 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Liverpool's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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