Everton 2-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Everton at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Burnley encounter.

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Match Analysis

Everton host Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Everton have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Burnley have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Everton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Everton have won 3, Burnley 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Everton 0–0 Burnley — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Everton trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Burnley trading profile (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 44% versus Burnley 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton 36% | Burnley 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.52 xG and Burnley 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.791 / defence 1.091 | Burnley attack 0.891 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.298. Everton's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.52. Burnley's defence rating of 1.324 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton's projected output up. Data: built from Everton's last 66 games and Burnley's last 28.

Result probabilities: Everton 41% | Draw 30% | Burnley 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.45 | Draw 3.36 | Burnley 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 80% (last 10 away games).

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