🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Bournemouth (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Bournemouth.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Burnley host Bournemouth at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Bournemouth have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bournemouth are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Burnley have won 0, Bournemouth 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Burnley in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Bournemouth in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 42% versus Bournemouth 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 40% | Bournemouth 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.44 xG and Bournemouth 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.849 / defence 1.383 | Bournemouth attack 1.114 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.303. Data: 29 Burnley games / 67 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 2.00. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 50% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights