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Poisson rates Arsenal at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Everton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Arsenal host Everton at Emirates Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Arsenal — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Arsenal at Emirates Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Arsenal are significantly better at Emirates Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Everton away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arsenal at 1.90 PPG versus Everton's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Arsenal: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Everton, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Arsenal winning.

The historical record gives Arsenal a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Arsenal trading profile (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Everton trading profile (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 55% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 49% | Everton 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.49 xG and Everton 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.366 / defence 0.781 | Everton attack 1.013 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.288. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Everton's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Arsenal games / 67 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Arsenal 46% | Draw 29% | Everton 24%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Everton 4.17. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 60% | Everton 40%.

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