Everton 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton face Bournemouth.

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Full Analysis

Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Everton have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Everton at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bournemouth (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Everton's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) — Everton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bournemouth in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Everton, 4 for Bournemouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2025, ended Everton 1–0 Bournemouth — a Everton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Everton half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Bournemouth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 35% | Bournemouth 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Bournemouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Everton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.900 / defence 1.153 | Bournemouth attack 1.257 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.277. Bournemouth's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton's projected output up. Bournemouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.257, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Everton's last 63 games and Bournemouth's last 63.

Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.77 | Draw 3.87 | Bournemouth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.85) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 60% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 80% (last 10 away games).

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