🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Fulham take on Everton.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Fulham welcome Everton to Craven Cottage. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fulham at 1.70 PPG versus Everton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Fulham have won 2, Everton 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Fulham trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Everton trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 68% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Everton 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.12 xG and Everton 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.140 / defence 1.027 | Everton attack 0.842 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.252. Everton's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Fulham games / 62 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fulham 33% | Draw 36% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Everton 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights