Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace in Premier League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Crystal Palace's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Burnley have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Crystal Palace against 0.50 for Burnley. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Crystal Palace have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Burnley managing 0 and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2025, ended Crystal Palace 1–0 Burnley — a Crystal Palace win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Crystal Palace and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 54% versus Burnley 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 44% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.44 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.709 / defence 1.013 | Burnley attack 0.781 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.282. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.44. Burnley's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crystal Palace's projected output up. Burnley's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Crystal Palace's last 63 games and Burnley's last 25.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 44% | Draw 33% | Burnley 23%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.29 | Draw 3.05 | Burnley 4.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Crystal Palace 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Crystal Palace's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crystal Palace 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 44% | Draw 33% | Burnley 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Crystal Palace 1.44 / Burnley 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.709 / def 1.013 | Burnley attack 0.781 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Burnley xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Crystal Palace vs Burnley kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Crystal Palace 2 - 3 Burnley.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Burnley part of?
Crystal Palace vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 44% chance of winning, Burnley a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Crystal Palace and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crystal Palace vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crystal Palace's attack at 0.71x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.78x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Crystal Palace's last 63 games and Burnley's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.05
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.45
1.01
Burnley xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.01 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crystal Palace come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 22D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.56 PPG from 63 outings (26W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.56 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crystal Palace's home form reads 8W 13D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.27 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Crystal Palace (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crystal Palace
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Crystal Palace vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Crystal Palace and Burnley in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Burnley have gone 26W 20D 17L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.19 PPG; Burnley away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Burnley in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Crystal Palace and Burnley, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won Crystal Palace 3-0 Burnley on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Crystal Palace
2
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Crystal Palace vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Crystal Palace have won 3, Burnley have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Burnley?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 58%, Burnley 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Crystal Palace) and 48% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 42%; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 32% of games; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crystal Palace vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crystal Palace and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 45% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Crystal Palace and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 48% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 68% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Crystal Palace 2-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.44 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 44% | Draw 33% | Burnley 23%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Burnley win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 44%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.35 PPG, Burnley 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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