Burnley 0-1 Manchester City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Manchester City (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Burnley face Manchester City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Manchester City meet at Turf Moor in Premier League (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Manchester City (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Manchester City have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Manchester City arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Manchester City have the stronger record — 5 wins to Burnley's 0, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Burnley 1–5 Manchester City — a Manchester City win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Manchester City have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Manchester City — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 39 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 43% versus Manchester City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 41% | Manchester City 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.81 xG and Manchester City 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.724 / defence 1.313 | Manchester City attack 1.192 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.249. Burnley's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Manchester City bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Burnley's projected output down. Burnley's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Manchester City's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 33 games and Manchester City's last 70.
Result probabilities: Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 7.62 | Draw 4.12 | Manchester City 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Manchester City (63%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Manchester City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Manchester City 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Manchester City | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Burnley 0.81 / Manchester City 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.724 / def 1.313 | Manchester City attack 1.192 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Manchester City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Manchester City xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Manchester City FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Manchester City kick off?
Burnley vs Manchester City kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Burnley 0 - 1 Manchester City.
Where is Burnley vs Manchester City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Manchester City part of?
Burnley vs Manchester City is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 13% chance of winning, Manchester City a 63% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burnley and Manchester City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Burnley vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.72x the league average against Manchester City's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Manchester City's attack (1.19x) against Burnley's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 33 games and Manchester City's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester City Win
13%
7.62
24%
4.12
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.77
1.96
Manchester City xG
7.62
13%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
14%
7.07
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
53.85
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Manchester City expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Burnley and 1.96 for Manchester City, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Manchester City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 27W 21D 22L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Manchester City's form line: 41W 15D 14L from 70 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Manchester City are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 34 home games (13W 12D 9L).
On the road, Manchester City have gone 15W 9D 10L from their last 34 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Manchester City are on 1.96 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Manchester City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Manchester City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Manchester City
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Manchester City Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Manchester City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 27W 21D 22L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Manchester City have gone 41W 15D 14L in their last 70 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Manchester City away?
Manchester City's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.50 PPG; Manchester City away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Burnley or Manchester City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Manchester City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Manchester City have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester City won Manchester City 5-1 Burnley on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Manchester City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Manchester City
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Manchester City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Manchester City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Manchester City have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Manchester City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2026: Burnley 0-1 Manchester City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Manchester City?
Manchester City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Manchester City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 35%, Manchester City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Burnley) and 53% (Manchester City).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Manchester City in 38%; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Manchester City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Manchester City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Manchester City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Burnley's recent matches and 50% of Manchester City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Manchester City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Burnley's recent games and 53% of Manchester City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Manchester City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burnley's recent matches and 68% of Manchester City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Burnley 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester City beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.81 xG and Manchester City 1.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burnley fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Manchester City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.72 / defence 1.31 against Manchester City attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 13% | Draw 24% | Manchester City 63%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 41%, Manchester City 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Manchester City's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Manchester City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 34
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →