Brighton 2-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brighton at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Brighton face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nottingham Forest make the trip to Amex Stadium to face Brighton in Premier League (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Brighton (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Brighton have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Brighton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nottingham Forest's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nottingham Forest's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Brighton, 2 for Nottingham Forest and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Brighton 2–0 Nottingham Forest — a Brighton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Brighton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brighton 68% versus Nottingham Forest 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brighton 60% | Nottingham Forest 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brighton 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brighton attack 0.912 / defence 0.903 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.889 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.302. Data: built from Brighton's last 65 games and Nottingham Forest's last 65.
Result probabilities: Brighton 42% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 26%. Fair-value odds: Brighton 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Nottingham Forest 3.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brighton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brighton 60% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brighton vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Amex Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brighton 42% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Brighton 1.38 / Nottingham Forest 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Brighton attack 0.912 / def 0.903 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.889 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Brighton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Brighton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Brighton vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Amex Stadium.
What was the final score in Brighton vs Nottingham Forest?
Brighton 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Brighton vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Amex Stadium.
What competition is Brighton vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Brighton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Brighton a 42% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Brighton and Nottingham Forest will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brighton vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brighton's attack at 0.91x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.89x) against Brighton's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Brighton's last 65 games and Nottingham Forest's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.12
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Brighton xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Nottingham Forest xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
15.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brighton vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Brighton and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Brighton and 1.04 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Brighton vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brighton's recent record stands at 24W 23D 18L from 65 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 25L across 65 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Brighton against 1.42 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brighton have managed 13W 14D 5L from their last 32 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 14W 5D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Brighton are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brighton
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Brighton (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brighton
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Brighton and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Brighton have gone 24W 23D 18L in their last 65 games (1.46 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 14D 25L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brighton at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Brighton's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brighton at home: 1.66 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Brighton and Nottingham Forest, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Brighton have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nottingham Forest won Nottingham Forest 7-0 Brighton on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brighton have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Brighton
2
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brighton and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Brighton have won 4, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brighton and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Brighton 2-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Brighton and Nottingham Forest?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 78% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brighton 72%, Nottingham Forest 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Brighton) and 59% (Nottingham Forest). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brighton home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brighton vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brighton and Nottingham Forest matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Brighton's games and 50% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brighton and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Brighton's matches and 59% of Nottingham Forest's.
Do Brighton and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Brighton's recent matches and 81% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brighton edge out Nottingham Forest 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton beat Nottingham Forest 2-1 at Amex Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brighton 1.38 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brighton attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brighton 42% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 26%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brighton 60%, Nottingham Forest 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brighton's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brighton 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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