Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sunderland travel to Vitality Stadium to take on Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bournemouth's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Sunderland have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Bournemouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Bournemouth have won 0, Sunderland 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Bournemouth 2–3 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 63% versus Sunderland 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 57% | Sunderland 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Sunderland have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sunderland surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Bournemouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.85 xG and Sunderland 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.087 / defence 1.005 | Sunderland attack 0.566 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.272. Sunderland's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.566 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 65 games and Sunderland's last 27.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 62% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 12%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.61 | Draw 3.81 | Sunderland 8.48. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (62%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 62% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bournemouth 1.85 / Sunderland 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.087 / def 1.005 | Sunderland attack 0.566 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Sunderland xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Bournemouth vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Bournemouth vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Sunderland part of?
Bournemouth vs Sunderland is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 62% chance of winning, Sunderland a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bournemouth and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 65 games and Sunderland's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
62%
1.61
26%
3.81
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.57
0.72
Sunderland xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
2%
53.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.72 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 22D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.45 PPG from 65 outings (24W 22D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.45 PPG, Sunderland on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bournemouth's home form reads 14W 9D 9L across their last 32 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.08 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 24W 22D 19L in their last 65 games (1.45 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 24W 22D 19L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Sunderland away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.59 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bournemouth
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Sunderland?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 1, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 50%, Sunderland 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bournemouth) and 44% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 41% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bournemouth's recent games and 44% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 62% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.85 xG and Sunderland 0.72 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Sunderland attack 0.57 / defence 1.20, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 62% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 12%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 57%, Sunderland 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.45 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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