Salford City 1-3 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Salford City (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Salford City face Newport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Newport County travel to Peninsula Stadium to take on Salford City in League Two (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Salford City stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Salford City have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Newport County have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Newport County have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Salford City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Salford City hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 6 wins compared to 1 for Newport County and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Salford City 1–0 Newport County — a Salford City win.
The head-to-head data gives Salford City an edge — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Newport County in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 55% versus Newport County 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 47% | Newport County 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.73 xG and Newport County 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.993 / defence 0.982 | Newport County attack 0.774 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Newport County's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salford City's projected output up. Newport County's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Salford City's last 75 games and Newport County's last 77.
Result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Newport County 19%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.75 | Draw 4.22 | Newport County 5.21. The model has a clear lean to Salford City (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 30% (last 10 home games) | Newport County 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, matchday 33 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Newport County 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Salford City 1.73 / Newport County 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.993 / def 0.982 | Newport County attack 0.774 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Salford City (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Newport County xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Newport County FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Newport County kick off?
Salford City vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Newport County?
Salford City 1 - 3 Newport County.
Where is Salford City vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Newport County part of?
Salford City vs Newport County is a League Two fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 57% chance of winning, Newport County a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Salford City and Newport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Salford City vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Salford City's attack rating (0.99) and Newport County's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 75 games and Newport County's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.22
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.61
0.89
Newport County xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
29.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Newport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Salford City and 0.89 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Newport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City's recent record stands at 34W 19D 22L from 75 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Newport County, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 42L across 75 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Newport County heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 18W 8D 11L from their last 37 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newport County's away record stands at 5W 7D 25L across their last 37 away games, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.01 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
Salford City (Home) vs Newport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Salford City vs Newport County Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Newport County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 34W 19D 22L in their last 75 games (1.61 PPG), while Newport County have gone 17W 16D 42L in their last 75 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Newport County away?
Salford City's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.68 PPG; Newport County away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Salford City
1
Draws
2
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Newport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Newport County?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 7, Newport County have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Salford City and Newport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Salford City 2-1 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Newport County?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 49%, Newport County 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Salford City) and 57% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Newport County in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Newport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Newport County matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Salford City's recent matches and 43% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salford City and Newport County matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Salford City's recent games and 57% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Newport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Salford City's recent matches and 73% of Newport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Newport County cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newport County beat Salford City 1-3 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.73 xG and Newport County 0.89 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Newport County outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Newport County attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 75/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 57% | Draw 24% | Newport County 19%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Newport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 47%, Newport County 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Newport County's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Newport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newport County (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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