Accrington ST 1-0 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Salford City in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 20:01 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Accrington ST's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at The Wham Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Salford City (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Salford City's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Accrington ST, 2.30 for Salford City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Accrington ST, 2 for Salford City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Salford City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salford City half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 50% versus Salford City 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 46% | Salford City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.20 xG and Salford City 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.995 / defence 0.869 | Salford City attack 1.159 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.210. Data: 74 Accrington ST games / 74 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 37%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Salford City 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salford City at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salford City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Accrington ST 40% | Salford City 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 20:01 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Accrington ST 1.20 / Salford City 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.995 / def 0.869 | Salford City attack 1.159 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Salford City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Salford City xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Salford City kick off?
Accrington ST vs Salford City kicked off at 20:01 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Accrington ST 1 - 0 Salford City.
Where is Accrington ST vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Salford City part of?
Accrington ST vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 36% chance of winning, Salford City a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Accrington ST and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Salford City?
Record (5 meetings): Accrington ST 3W | Draws 0 | Salford City 2W.
What form are Accrington ST and Salford City in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Salford City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.99) and Salford City's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salford City's attack (1.16x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.63
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.42
1.22
Salford City xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.22 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Accrington ST come into this having played 74 games, going 23W 21D 30L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Salford City sit at 1.64 PPG from 74 outings (34W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Salford City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 14D 11L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Salford City have taken 1.59 points per game from 37 outings (16W 11D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.42 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 74 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Salford City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Salford City in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 23W 21D 30L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Salford City have gone 34W 19D 21L in their last 74 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Salford City away?
Salford City's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.35 PPG; Salford City away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Accrington ST won 3-0 on 1 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salford City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Salford City?
From 6 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 4, Salford City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Accrington ST 1-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Salford City?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 51%, Salford City 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Accrington ST) and 49% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Salford City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of Accrington ST's games and 62% of Salford City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Accrington ST vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Accrington ST's recent games and 49% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Salford City tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Salford City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Salford City 1-0 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.20 xG and Salford City 1.22 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salford City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 0.87 against Salford City attack 1.16 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 36% | Draw 28% | Salford City 37%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Accrington ST win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 46%, Salford City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Salford City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Accrington ST winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.