Crewe 0-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 33 as Crewe welcome Fleetwood Town to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crewe at Alexandra Stadium this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Fleetwood Town have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fleetwood Town away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Crewe have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crewe register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Fleetwood Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Crewe have won 2, Fleetwood Town 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Crewe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Crewe trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Fleetwood Town trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Fleetwood Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 38% | Fleetwood Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.199 / defence 0.979 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.880 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: 78 Crewe games / 76 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Fleetwood Town 3.85. Crewe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crewe 80% | Fleetwood Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Crewe 1.49 / Fleetwood Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.199 / def 0.979 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.880 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Crewe (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Fleetwood Town xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Crewe 0 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Crewe vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 48% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crewe and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Record (5 meetings): Crewe 2W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 3W.
What form are Crewe and Fleetwood Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Crewe's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Fleetwood Town's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.84
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Fleetwood Town xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Crewe and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Crewe and 1.01 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crewe's recent record stands at 29W 25D 22L from 76 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 28L across 76 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.47 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 18W 10D 10L from 38 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 12W 7D 19L across 38 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crewe are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 29W 25D 22L in their last 76 games (1.47 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 25W 23D 28L in their last 76 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Crewe's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.68 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crewe and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Fleetwood Town won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crewe's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crewe
0
Draws
4
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Crewe have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Crewe 0-1 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Fleetwood Town 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Crewe) and 55% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Fleetwood Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crewe's recent matches and 55% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Crewe's recent games and 55% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fleetwood Town defy the odds to beat Crewe 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Crewe 0-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.49 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crewe fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 78/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 48% | Draw 26% | Fleetwood Town 26%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Fleetwood Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 38%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.47 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.