Chesterfield 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chesterfield vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chesterfield and Gillingham meet at SMH Group Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Chesterfield (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chesterfield at SMH Group Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chesterfield, 2 for Gillingham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Gillingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chesterfield — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 57% versus Gillingham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 54% | Gillingham 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.37 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.163 / defence 0.963 | Gillingham attack 0.907 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Data: 77 Chesterfield games / 76 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Gillingham 3.57. Chesterfield hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chesterfield if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chesterfield 60% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Chesterfield 1.37 / Gillingham 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.163 / def 0.963 | Gillingham attack 0.907 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gillingham xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Gillingham kick off?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Chesterfield 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Chesterfield vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Gillingham part of?
Chesterfield vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 45% chance of winning, Gillingham a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chesterfield and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Chesterfield 0W | Draws 1 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Chesterfield and Gillingham in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chesterfield's attack rating (1.16) and Gillingham's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.91x) against Chesterfield's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 77/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.68
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.39
1.02
Gillingham xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.02 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chesterfield's recent record stands at 30W 24D 22L from 76 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 24W 27D 25L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Chesterfield against 1.30 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chesterfield have managed 16W 15D 6L from 37 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 7W 16D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chesterfield come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chesterfield are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 30W 24D 22L in their last 76 games (1.50 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 27D 25L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Gillingham away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.70 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gillingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gillingham won 4-1 on 19 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chesterfield have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
From 5 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 1, Gillingham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Chesterfield 1-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 65%, Gillingham 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chesterfield) and 30% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Chesterfield's games and 51% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chesterfield vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chesterfield's recent games and 30% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Gillingham tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chesterfield edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield beat Gillingham 1-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.37 xG and Gillingham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Gillingham attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 77/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 45% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 28%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Gillingham 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.50 PPG, Gillingham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chesterfield win broke the near-deadlock. Chesterfield (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.