Harrogate Town 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cambridge United at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Harrogate Town vs Cambridge United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Harrogate Town and Cambridge United meet at Exercise Stadium in League Two (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time.

Form

Harrogate Town (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Harrogate Town's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 home games (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambridge United are 2.30 PPG clear of Harrogate Town over their recent games (2.40 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Harrogate Town's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) — Harrogate Town have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Cambridge United in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Harrogate Town, 0 for Cambridge United and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Harrogate Town 1–1 Cambridge United — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Cambridge United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 42% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Harrogate Town 38% | Cambridge United 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 0.54 xG and Cambridge United 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.536 / defence 1.423 | Cambridge United attack 0.968 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.196. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.536 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.54. Cambridge United bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Harrogate Town's projected output down. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.423 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 76 games and Cambridge United's last 28.

Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 12% | Draw 24% | Cambridge United 65%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 8.56 | Draw 4.23 | Cambridge United 1.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambridge United (65%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Harrogate Town's lower xG of 0.54 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cambridge United as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Harrogate Town's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 20% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 30% (last 10 away games).

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