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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Cambridge United encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Crawley Town and Cambridge United meet at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 3W 4D 3L at The Broadfield Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Cambridge United's overall League Two record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in League Two this season, Cambridge United have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambridge United are 1.50 PPG clear of Crawley Town in recent League Two fixtures (2.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crawley Town lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Cambridge United winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 52% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Cambridge United 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.08 xG and Cambridge United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.946 / defence 1.115 | Cambridge United attack 0.925 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Crawley Town games / 29 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 32% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 70% | Cambridge United 40%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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