Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Crewe travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 12:31 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crawley Town's home record at The Broadfield Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crewe have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 0.90 PPG, Crewe 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Crewe in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Crewe, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Crawley Town.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Crewe winning.
It is worth noting that Crewe have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Crewe in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Crewe 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.33 xG and Crewe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.044 / defence 1.127 | Crewe attack 0.909 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.204. Data: 29 Crawley Town games / 76 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 27% | Crewe 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Crewe 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 80% | Crewe 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 12:31 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 27% | Crewe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Crawley Town 1.33 / Crewe 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.044 / def 1.127 | Crewe attack 0.909 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Crewe xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Crewe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Crewe kicked off at 12:31 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Crewe part of?
Crawley Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 39% chance of winning, Crewe a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Crawley Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Record (6 meetings): Crawley Town 1W | Draws 1 | Crewe 4W.
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.04x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.77
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Crewe xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.23 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town come into this having played 75 games, going 18W 18D 39L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.41 PPG from 75 outings (27W 25D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Crewe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Crawley Town's home form reads 11W 11D 15L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.22 points per game from 37 outings (10W 15D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.27 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 18D 39L in their last 75 games (0.96 PPG), while Crewe have gone 27W 25D 23L in their last 75 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.19 PPG; Crewe away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Crewe runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crewe have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
6
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Crewe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crewe see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Crewe 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crawley Town) and 32% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Crewe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crawley Town's games and 54% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crawley Town's recent games and 32% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Crewe in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 0-1 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.33 xG and Crewe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Crewe attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 29/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 39% | Draw 27% | Crewe 34%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Crewe 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crewe's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.