Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Crewe — this Crawley Town vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Crewe travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Crawley Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Crewe stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Crewe have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 0.90 PPG, Crewe 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 60% of Crewe's (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Crewe's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Crewe have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Crawley Town.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Crawley Town 0–1 Crewe — a Crewe win.

Crewe have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Crewe in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Crewe 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Crawley Town surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Crewe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.33 xG and Crewe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.044 / defence 1.127 | Crewe attack 0.909 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.204. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 29 games and Crewe's last 76.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 27% | Crewe 34%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.56 | Draw 3.77 | Crewe 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 80% (last 10 home games) | Crewe 60% (last 10 away games).

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