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Poisson model rates Crewe at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Alexandra Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Crewe have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 5W 4D 1L at Alexandra Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Crewe against 1.20 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Gillingham winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Crewe — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Gillingham — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Gillingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 39% | Gillingham 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.51 xG and Gillingham 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.231 / defence 1.048 | Gillingham attack 0.982 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Data: 77 Crewe games / 75 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crewe 44% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 80% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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