Crewe 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crewe at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alexandra Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crewe have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 5W 4D 1L at Alexandra Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Crewe against 1.20 for Gillingham. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Crewe — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Gillingham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 39% | Gillingham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.51 xG and Gillingham 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.231 / defence 1.048 | Gillingham attack 0.982 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Data: 77 Crewe games / 75 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 44% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crewe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 80% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 44% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Crewe 1.51 / Gillingham 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.231 / def 1.048 | Gillingham attack 0.982 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Crewe (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Gillingham xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Gillingham kick off?
Crewe vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Crewe 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Crewe vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Gillingham part of?
Crewe vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 44% chance of winning, Gillingham a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crewe and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
Record (9 meetings): Crewe 3W | Draws 3 | Gillingham 3W.
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in?
Crewe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.23x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.98x) against Crewe's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 77/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.94
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.73
1.23
Gillingham xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Crewe and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Crewe and 1.23 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 28W 25D 22L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 24W 27D 24L from 75 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Crewe against 1.32 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.65 PPG from 37 outings (17W 10D 10L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 8W 16D 13L from 37 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crewe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crewe are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.08 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 28W 25D 22L in their last 75 games (1.45 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 27D 24L in their last 75 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Gillingham away?
Crewe's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.65 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Crewe or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gillingham in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crewe have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crewe
3
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Gillingham?
From 10 meetings on record, Crewe have won 4, Gillingham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Crewe 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Gillingham?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 51%, Gillingham 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 30% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Crewe's recent matches and 51% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 30% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Gillingham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Gillingham 1-0 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.51 xG and Gillingham 1.23 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.23 / defence 1.05 against Gillingham attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 77/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 44% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 31%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 39%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.45 PPG, Gillingham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.