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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Harrogate Town encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Crawley Town and Harrogate Town meet at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Harrogate Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Harrogate Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Crawley Town have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Harrogate Town managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Crawley Town winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Crawley Town and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Harrogate Town 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Harrogate Town 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.24 xG and Harrogate Town 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.999 / defence 1.211 | Harrogate Town attack 0.717 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.215. Data: 28 Crawley Town games / 74 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 40% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Harrogate Town 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 80% | Harrogate Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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