Wigan 1-1 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DW Stadium plays host to Wigan versus Ipswich in League One, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 6W 1D 3L at DW Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ipswich's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Ipswich have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Wigan's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wigan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ipswich in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wigan 58% and Ipswich 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 58% | Ipswich 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.43 xG and Ipswich 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.994 / defence 1.055 | Ipswich attack 0.933 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Ipswich bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Wigan games / 21 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 40% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 34%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 60% | Ipswich 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 40% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Wigan 1.43 / Ipswich 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.994 / def 1.055 | Ipswich attack 0.933 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Wigan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ipswich xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Ipswich kick off?
Wigan vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Ipswich?
Wigan 1 - 1 Ipswich.
Where is Wigan vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Ipswich part of?
Wigan vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 40% chance of winning, Ipswich a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wigan and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Ipswich?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Ipswich in?
Wigan (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ipswich (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.99) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (0.93x) against Wigan's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 19/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.76
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.72
1.29
Ipswich xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Wigan and 1.29 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.16 PPG on a 13W 2D 4L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich's form line: 7W 5D 7L from 19 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ipswich.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wigan are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.74 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich in 63%.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 13W 2D 4L in their last 19 games (2.16 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Ipswich away?
Wigan's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.78 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Wigan or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ipswich in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wigan
2
Draws
0
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Ipswich?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 0, Ipswich have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Ipswich 2-2 Wigan.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 67%, Ipswich 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Wigan and 67% for Ipswich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wigan's games and 56% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Wigan's matches and 67% of Ipswich's.
Do Wigan and Ipswich tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Ipswich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Wigan and Ipswich drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.43 xG and Ipswich 1.29 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Ipswich attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 40% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 34%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 58%, Ipswich 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.