Crewe 0-2 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sheffield Wednesday travel to Mornflake Stadium to take on Crewe. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mornflake Stadium, Crewe have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Crewe are significantly better at Mornflake Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sheffield Wednesday are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Crewe in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Sheffield Wednesday 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 38% | Sheffield Wednesday 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.06 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.839 / defence 1.301 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.812 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Data: 21 Crewe games / 21 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 28% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Wednesday 44%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 50% | Sheffield Wednesday 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 28% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Wednesday 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Crewe 1.06 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.839 / def 1.301 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.812 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sheffield Wednesday xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Crewe 0 - 2 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 28% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Crewe (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crewe's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sheffield Wednesday's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.44
1.39
Sheffield Wednesday xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.17
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Crewe and 1.39 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 6D 12L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 8W 10D 3L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sheffield Wednesday are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.20 PPG from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — Crewe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 3W 6D 12L in their last 21 games (0.71 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 8W 10D 3L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Sheffield Wednesday's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.20 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Crewe or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crewe
0
Draws
2
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 0, Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 50%, Sheffield Wednesday 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Crewe) and 50% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Sheffield Wednesday?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Crewe's games and 60% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Crewe's recent games and 50% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Crewe 0-2 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.06 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.39 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crewe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.81 / defence 1.07, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 28% | Draw 28% | Sheffield Wednesday 44%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 38%, Sheffield Wednesday 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.