Ipswich 1-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sunderland travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ipswich at 1.40 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ipswich register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sunderland in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ipswich, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ipswich trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Sunderland trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 67% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ipswich 67% | Sunderland 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.82 xG and Sunderland 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.076 / defence 1.248 | Sunderland attack 0.934 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.297. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Ipswich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ipswich games / 21 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Sunderland 3.12. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 70% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Ipswich 1.82 / Sunderland 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.076 / def 1.248 | Sunderland attack 0.934 / def 1.437 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sunderland xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Sunderland kick off?
Ipswich vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Ipswich vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Sunderland part of?
Ipswich vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 45% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ipswich and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Ipswich 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Ipswich's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
45%
2.23
23%
4.34
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Ipswich xG
Total xG
3.33
1.51
Sunderland xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.51 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ipswich's recent record stands at 7W 6D 8L from 21 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 13W 3D 5L across 21 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ipswich heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
The Goals Picture
Ipswich are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.81 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 13W 3D 5L in their last 21 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Sunderland away?
Ipswich's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.60 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ipswich and Sunderland runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ipswich's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ipswich
1
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 2, Sunderland have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Sunderland?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ipswich at 70%, Sunderland at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Ipswich and 80% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Ipswich's games and 60% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ipswich vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Ipswich's matches and 80% of Sunderland's.
Do Ipswich and Sunderland tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 23, as Ipswich and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.82 xG and Sunderland 1.51 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Ipswich fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Sunderland attack 0.93 / defence 1.44, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 45% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 32%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 67%, Sunderland 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.