Sunderland 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Plymouth travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sunderland stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadium of Light — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium of Light. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.70 PPG, Plymouth 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Plymouth in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 50% versus Plymouth 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 65% | Plymouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.64 xG and Plymouth 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.311 / defence 0.720 | Plymouth attack 1.012 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Sunderland carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sunderland's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 20 Sunderland games / 21 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 53% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 21%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 4.76. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 53% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.64 / Plymouth 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.311 / def 0.720 | Plymouth attack 1.012 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Plymouth xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Plymouth kick off?
Sunderland vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Sunderland 2 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Sunderland vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Plymouth part of?
Sunderland vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 53% chance of winning, Plymouth a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Plymouth in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.31x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.92
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Plymouth xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
24.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.96 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 3D 5L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.95 PPG, Plymouth on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sunderland's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.70 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth in 65%.
Last 20 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 10W 7D 3L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Plymouth away?
Sunderland's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.44 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Plymouth in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Plymouth have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sunderland 2-2 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 33%, Plymouth 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sunderland) and 56% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sunderland's recent matches and 67% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sunderland's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Plymouth tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Plymouth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Plymouth 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.64 xG and Plymouth 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.31 / defence 0.72 against Plymouth attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 53% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 21%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 65%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.95 PPG, Plymouth 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.