Charlton 2-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Cambridge United travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 2D 4L at The Valley — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 57% and Cambridge United 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 52% | Cambridge United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.81 xG and Cambridge United 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.120 / defence 1.088 | Cambridge United attack 1.109 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.311. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Charlton games / 21 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 34%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Cambridge United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Cambridge United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Charlton 1.81 / Cambridge United 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.120 / def 1.088 | Cambridge United attack 1.109 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Charlton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Cambridge United xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Charlton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Charlton 2 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Charlton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cambridge United part of?
Charlton vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 43% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Charlton and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.29
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.40
1.58
Cambridge United xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
5%
18.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Charlton and 1.58 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 7W 5D 9L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 6W 8D 7L from 21 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.24 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.52 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambridge United in 71%.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 7W 5D 9L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cambridge United away?
Charlton's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.40 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Charlton or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charlton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 50%, Cambridge United at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Charlton and 70% for Cambridge United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cambridge United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Charlton's games and 80% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Charlton's matches and 70% of Cambridge United's.
Do Charlton and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cambridge United 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.81 xG and Cambridge United 1.58 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambridge United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Cambridge United attack 1.11 / defence 1.38, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 43% | Draw 23% | Cambridge United 34%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 52%, Cambridge United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.24 PPG, Cambridge United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.