Stockport County 1-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Port Vale encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Stockport County welcome Port Vale to Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 43). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Stockport County — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Port Vale have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Port Vale's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Port Vale and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2025, ended Stockport County 3–0 Port Vale — a Stockport County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Port Vale trading profile (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Port Vale 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.02 xG and Port Vale 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.223 / defence 0.914 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.181. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Stockport County's last 90 games and Port Vale's last 44.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.52 | Draw 4.92 | Port Vale 7.12. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 40% (last 10 away games).

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