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Poisson rates Stockport County at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Peterborough encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stockport County and Peterborough meet at Edgeley Park in League One, Regular Season - 45. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.

Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.70 PPG lead over Peterborough (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Peterborough winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 57% and Peterborough 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Peterborough 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.89 xG and Peterborough 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.179 / defence 0.936 | Peterborough attack 0.923 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.166. Data: 89 Stockport County games / 89 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.

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