Cardiff 2-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Bolton at Cardiff City Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cardiff have posted 6W 2D 2L at Cardiff City Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Bolton away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cardiff 1.50 PPG, Bolton 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for Bolton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Bolton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 55% versus Bolton 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 49% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.32 xG and Bolton 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.086 / defence 1.055 | Bolton attack 1.095 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.119. Data: 40 Cardiff games / 87 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 37% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Bolton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Bolton 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 37% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cardiff 1.32 / Bolton 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.086 / def 1.055 | Bolton attack 1.095 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bolton xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Bolton kick off?
Cardiff vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Bolton?
Cardiff 2 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Cardiff vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Bolton part of?
Cardiff vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 37% chance of winning, Bolton a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cardiff and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Bolton in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Bolton (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.61
1.29
Bolton xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.29 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 32W 26D 28L from 86 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 37W 24D 25L across 86 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.42 PPG, Bolton on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 21W 8D 14L from 43 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bolton's away record stands at 14W 13D 16L across 43 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.44 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Bolton in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 32W 26D 28L in their last 86 games (1.42 PPG), while Bolton have gone 37W 24D 25L in their last 86 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Bolton away?
Cardiff's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.65 PPG; Bolton away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Bolton runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Bolton?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Bolton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Cardiff 2-0 Bolton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 46%, Bolton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cardiff) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cardiff have failed to score in 28% of games; Bolton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cardiff's recent matches and 60% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cardiff's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Bolton tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bolton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Bolton 2-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.32 xG and Bolton 1.29 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Bolton attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 37% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.42 PPG, Bolton 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.