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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Wigan take on Mansfield Town.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Wigan welcome Mansfield Town to The Brick Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Wigan — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Wigan at The Brick Community Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all League One games this season, Mansfield Town have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Wigan) versus 1.40 (Mansfield Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wigan, 1 for Mansfield Town and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Wigan trading profile (85 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Mansfield Town trading profile (85 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 44% versus Mansfield Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 33% | Mansfield Town 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.78 xG and Mansfield Town 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.706 / defence 0.765 | Mansfield Town attack 0.896 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.117. Wigan's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wigan's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 87 Wigan games / 85 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wigan 32% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 32%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Mansfield Town 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Mansfield Town's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.55 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 20% | Mansfield Town 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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