Stevenage vs Barnsley – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Barnsley at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Barnsley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Stevenage welcome Barnsley to Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Barnsley have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Barnsley have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Barnsley have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.20 (Barnsley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Stevenage, 2 for Barnsley and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Barnsley in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Barnsley 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Barnsley 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.17 xG and Barnsley 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.952 / defence 1.015 | Barnsley attack 1.009 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.314. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 49 Barnsley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 30% | Barnsley 39%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Barnsley 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Barnsley as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Barnsley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Barnsley 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Barnsley | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 31% | Draw 30% | Barnsley 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Stevenage 1.17 / Barnsley 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.952 / def 1.015 | Barnsley attack 1.009 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Barnsley (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Barnsley xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Barnsley kick off?
Stevenage vs Barnsley is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Barnsley being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Barnsley part of?
Stevenage vs Barnsley is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 31% chance of winning, Barnsley a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Barnsley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Stevenage and Barnsley will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Barnsley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Barnsley?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 4W | Draws 0 | Barnsley 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Barnsley in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Barnsley (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.95x the league average against Barnsley's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Barnsley's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barnsley Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.32
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.52
1.35
Barnsley xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Barnsley expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.35 for Barnsley, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Barnsley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 19W 15D 16L from 50 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Barnsley, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 18L across 50 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Barnsley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.44 PPG, Barnsley on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 13W 8D 4L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Barnsley's away record stands at 7W 9D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Barnsley are on 1.46 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Barnsley in 66%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Barnsley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Barnsley in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Barnsley have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Barnsley away?
Stevenage's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.88 PPG; Barnsley away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Barnsley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Barnsley in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Stevenage won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Barnsley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
2
Barnsley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Barnsley?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Barnsley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Barnsley last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Barnsley.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Barnsley?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Barnsley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Barnsley 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 60% (Barnsley).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Barnsley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Barnsley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Barnsley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 64% of Barnsley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Barnsley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 60% of Barnsley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Barnsley tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Barnsley in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.