AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Bromley travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bromley stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bromley's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG, Bromley 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Bromley and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bromley trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 44% versus Bromley 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 49% | Bromley 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.28 xG and Bromley 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.719 / defence 0.721 | Bromley attack 0.834 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bromley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 AFC Wimbledon games / 9 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 31% | Bromley 22%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Bromley 4.55. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Bromley 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 47% | Draw 31% | Bromley 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.28 / Bromley 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.719 / def 0.721 | Bromley attack 0.834 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bromley xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 47% chance of winning, Bromley a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 0 | Bromley 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Bromley (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.72) and Bromley's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bromley's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.20
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.06
0.78
Bromley xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.78 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 18W 11D 26L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bromley's form line: 26W 17D 12L from 55 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bromley are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AFC Wimbledon.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L).
On the road, Bromley have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.45 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Bromley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bromley in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 11D 26L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Bromley have gone 26W 17D 12L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bromley away?
Bromley's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.33 PPG; Bromley away: 1.44 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bromley in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
From 3 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Bromley have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Bromley 0-2 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Bromley?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 37%, Bromley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AFC Wimbledon) and 52% (Bromley).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Bromley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 56% of Bromley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 52% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bromley tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bromley in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.