Stevenage vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Stevenage's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Stevenage 2W, Peterborough 2W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Peterborough — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Peterborough 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Peterborough 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.84 xG and Peterborough 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.924 / defence 1.030 | Peterborough attack 0.745 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 50 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 57% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 19%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Peterborough 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 57% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Stevenage 1.84 / Peterborough 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.924 / def 1.030 | Peterborough attack 0.745 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Peterborough xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 57% chance of winning, Peterborough a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
Record (7 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 3 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.74x) against Stevenage's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.00
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.82
0.98
Peterborough xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
34.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.98 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 15D 16L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Peterborough's form line: 16W 9D 25L from 50 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Stevenage against 1.14 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (13W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 7W 2D 16L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.32 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.88 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Peterborough in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Peterborough 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 56% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.