Stevenage vs Peterborough – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 6W 2D 2L at Lamex Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Peterborough (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Stevenage, 0.90 for Peterborough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Stevenage 2W, Peterborough 2W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Peterborough — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Peterborough 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Peterborough 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.51 xG and Peterborough 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | Peterborough attack 0.837 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 56 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 23%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 4.35. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Peterborough 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 49% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Stevenage 1.51 / Peterborough 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | Peterborough attack 0.837 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Peterborough xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 February 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 49% chance of winning, Peterborough a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
Record (7 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 3 | Peterborough 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.84x) against Stevenage's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.57
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Peterborough xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.95 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 15D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 17W 11D 28L from 56 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Stevenage against 1.11 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 8W 3D 17L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Peterborough in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Peterborough 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 54% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 57% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 54% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.