Mansfield Town vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mansfield Town host Bradford at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 4D 1L at One Call Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bradford — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bradford's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Mansfield Town have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mansfield Town trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 56% versus Bradford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Bradford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.80 xG and Bradford 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.355 / defence 1.017 | Bradford attack 0.808 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Mansfield Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Mansfield Town games / 50 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 25% | Bradford 21%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bradford 4.76. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 70% | Bradford 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 54% | Draw 25% | Bradford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Mansfield Town 1.80 / Bradford 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.355 / def 1.017 | Bradford attack 0.808 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bradford xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Bradford kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Bradford part of?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 54% chance of winning, Bradford a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mansfield Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Record (8 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 3 | Bradford 2W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.93
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.85
1.05
Bradford xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
29.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.05 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 17D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.58 PPG from 50 outings (23W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.42 PPG, Bradford on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mansfield Town's home form reads 11W 8D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.20 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Bradford
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Bradford have gone 23W 10D 17L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Bradford away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.64 PPG; Bradford away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bradford in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Bradford runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Bradford 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 60%, Bradford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Mansfield Town and 60% for Bradford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bradford in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mansfield Town's games and 60% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Mansfield Town's matches and 60% of Bradford's.
Do Mansfield Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bradford in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.