Mansfield Town vs Bradford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mansfield Town host Bradford at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 5D 0L at One Call Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mansfield Town are significantly better at One Call Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bradford — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mansfield Town at 1.50 PPG versus Bradford's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Bradford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mansfield Town trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Bradford trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 55% versus Bradford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 50% | Bradford 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.02 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.146 / defence 0.879 | Bradford attack 0.764 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Bradford's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Mansfield Town games / 57 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 37% | Draw 34% | Bradford 29%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Bradford 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Mansfield Town 80% | Bradford 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 37% | Draw 34% | Bradford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Mansfield Town 1.02 / Bradford 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.146 / def 0.879 | Bradford attack 0.764 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bradford xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Bradford kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at One Call Stadium.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Bradford part of?
Mansfield Town vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 37% chance of winning, Bradford a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mansfield Town and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
Record (9 meetings): Mansfield Town 3W | Draws 3 | Bradford 3W.
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Bradford (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Mansfield Town's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
1.89
0.87
Bradford xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.87 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mansfield Town come into this having played 56 games, going 20W 20D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.62 PPG from 56 outings (26W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mansfield Town on 1.43 PPG, Bradford on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mansfield Town's home form reads 12W 10D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Bradford in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 20W 20D 16L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Bradford have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Bradford away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.64 PPG; Bradford away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Mansfield Town or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mansfield Town have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bradford in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mansfield Town and Bradford runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Mansfield Town won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mansfield Town's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Mansfield Town
3
Draws
3
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Bradford?
From 9 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 3, Bradford have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 61%, Bradford 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mansfield Town) and 50% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bradford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mansfield Town's games and 54% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mansfield Town vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 50% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Bradford tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bradford in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.