Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Burton Albion travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale in League One (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Port Vale have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Port Vale at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Port Vale) versus 0.80 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Port Vale, 2 for Burton Albion and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Port Vale 0–0 Burton Albion — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 41% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.746 / defence 1.235 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.101. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Data: built from Port Vale's last 27 games and Burton Albion's last 75.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.85 | Draw 3.61 | Burton Albion 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 40% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Port Vale 1.18 / Burton Albion 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.746 / def 1.235 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Burton Albion xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Burton Albion kick off?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:31 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Port Vale 2 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Port Vale vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Burton Albion part of?
Port Vale vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 35% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Port Vale and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Port Vale vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.75x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 27 games and Burton Albion's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.61
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Burton Albion xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.22 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 20D 26L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 19W 20D 34L from 73 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 36 home games (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 8W 11D 17L from their last 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Burton Albion
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 27W 20D 26L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 19W 20D 34L in their last 73 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Burton Albion away?
Port Vale's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.44 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Port Vale's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Burton Albion?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Burton Albion have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Port Vale 2-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Port Vale) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Burton Albion in 31%; Port Vale have failed to score in 42% of games; Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Port Vale's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Port Vale and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 31, as Port Vale and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.18 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.24 against Burton Albion attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 35% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 37%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.38 PPG, Burton Albion 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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