Plymouth 2-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Park plays host to Plymouth versus Port Vale in League One (matchday 45). Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Plymouth have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Port Vale have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Plymouth's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Plymouth 1–0 Port Vale — a Plymouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 33 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Port Vale 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Port Vale 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.77 xG and Port Vale 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.077 / defence 1.246 | Port Vale attack 0.757 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.165. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 44 games and Port Vale's last 43.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 24%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.88 | Draw 4.28 | Port Vale 4.25. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plymouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 45 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Plymouth 1.77 / Port Vale 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.077 / def 1.246 | Port Vale attack 0.757 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Port Vale xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Port Vale kick off?
Plymouth vs Port Vale kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Port Vale?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Plymouth vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Port Vale part of?
Plymouth vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 53% chance of winning, Port Vale a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plymouth and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plymouth vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Port Vale's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.76x) against Plymouth's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 44 games and Port Vale's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.28
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.87
1.10
Port Vale xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
4%
24.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.10 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 89 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 31W 20D 38L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 31W 26D 32L from 89 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Plymouth against 1.34 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 44 home games (18W 10D 16L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 15W 10D 19L from their last 44 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.10 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 31W 20D 38L in their last 89 games (1.27 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 31W 26D 32L in their last 89 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Port Vale away?
Plymouth's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.45 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port Vale in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Plymouth and Port Vale, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plymouth have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Plymouth
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Port Vale?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 3, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Plymouth 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Port Vale?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 68%, Port Vale 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Plymouth) and 43% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Plymouth's recent matches and 41% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Plymouth's recent games and 43% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Plymouth's recent matches and 59% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Port Vale 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Port Vale 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.77 xG and Port Vale 1.10 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.08 / defence 1.25 against Port Vale attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 53% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 24%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Port Vale 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.27 PPG, Port Vale 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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