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Poisson rates Plymouth at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Plymouth encounter.

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Full Analysis

Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Northampton (all games): 0W 0D 10L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Plymouth have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Plymouth's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 2.10 PPG clear of Northampton in recent League One fixtures (2.10 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Northampton lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Northampton winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Northampton — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Plymouth — key trading statistics (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 50% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 47% | Plymouth 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.82 xG and Plymouth 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.693 / defence 1.317 | Plymouth attack 1.381 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.177. Northampton's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 91 Northampton games / 45 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Northampton 13% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 68%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 7.69 | Draw 5.26 | Plymouth 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Plymouth 50%.

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