🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Wigan (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wigan face AFC Wimbledon.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

The Brick Community Stadium plays host to Wigan versus AFC Wimbledon in League One, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Wigan's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home at The Brick Community Stadium, Wigan have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

AFC Wimbledon (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.

AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Wigan's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Across 3 previous meetings, Wigan are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Wigan winning.

The historical record gives Wigan a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Wigan — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 42% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 33% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.878 / defence 0.734 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.807 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.165. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wigan's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 90 Wigan games / 44 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Wigan 57% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 17%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Wimbledon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 20% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights