🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Stockport County at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Port Vale encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Stockport County welcome Port Vale to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.

Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Port Vale's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 1, Port Vale 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Stockport County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Stockport County trading profile (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Port Vale trading profile (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Port Vale 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.02 xG and Port Vale 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.223 / defence 0.914 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.181. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Stockport County games / 44 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Port Vale 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Port Vale 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights