Stockport County 1-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Stockport County welcome Port Vale to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Port Vale have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Port Vale's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Stockport County have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stockport County have won 1, Port Vale 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Port Vale trading profile (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Port Vale 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.02 xG and Port Vale 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.223 / defence 0.914 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.181. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Stockport County games / 44 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Port Vale 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Port Vale 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Stockport County 2.02 / Port Vale 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.223 / def 0.914 | Port Vale attack 0.747 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Port Vale xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Port Vale kick off?
Stockport County vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Port Vale?
Stockport County 1 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Stockport County vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Port Vale part of?
Stockport County vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 66% chance of winning, Port Vale a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stockport County and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Port Vale in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Port Vale (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.22x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.92
14%
7.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.82
0.81
Port Vale xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.12
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
53.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.81 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County come into this having played 90 games, going 44W 25D 21L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.32 PPG from 90 outings (31W 26D 33L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Port Vale — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stockport County's home form reads 28W 9D 8L across 45 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.22 points per game from 45 outings (15W 10D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.10 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 44W 25D 21L in their last 90 games (1.74 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 31W 26D 33L in their last 90 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Port Vale away?
Stockport County's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.07 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Port Vale in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Port Vale runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Port Vale?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Stockport County 1-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 58%, Port Vale 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Stockport County) and 44% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Port Vale in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Stockport County's recent matches and 42% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Stockport County's recent games and 44% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Port Vale tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Stockport County 1-2 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.02 xG and Port Vale 0.81 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stockport County fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 66% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 14%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.