Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lincoln (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Plymouth face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Lincoln meet at Home Park in League One (matchday 31). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time.
Current Form
Plymouth's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Lincoln have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lincoln are 0.60 PPG clear of Plymouth over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Lincoln, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Plymouth 2–3 Lincoln — a Lincoln win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lincoln have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Lincoln 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 55% | Lincoln 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.95 xG and Lincoln 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.786 / defence 1.161 | Lincoln attack 1.113 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.106. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Plymouth's last 29 games and Lincoln's last 75.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 25% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 48%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.98 | Draw 3.73 | Lincoln 2.08. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 50% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:01 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 25% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Plymouth 0.95 / Lincoln 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.786 / def 1.161 | Lincoln attack 1.113 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lincoln xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plymouth vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Plymouth vs Lincoln kick off?
Plymouth vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:01 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Plymouth 1 - 4 Lincoln.
Where is Plymouth vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Lincoln part of?
Plymouth vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 25% chance of winning, Lincoln a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Plymouth and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Plymouth vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.79) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (1.11x) against Plymouth's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Plymouth's last 29 games and Lincoln's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.73
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
Lincoln xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.65
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plymouth vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.43 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 22W 17D 36L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 33W 20D 22L from 75 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lincoln are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plymouth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 37 home games (14W 9D 14L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 11D 14L from their last 37 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.49 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
Plymouth (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plymouth
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Plymouth vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Plymouth and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 22W 17D 36L in their last 75 games (1.11 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 33W 20D 22L in their last 75 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Lincoln away?
Plymouth's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.38 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Lincoln in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Plymouth and Lincoln, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lincoln have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lincoln won Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Plymouth
2
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Plymouth vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Plymouth have won 0, Lincoln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 53% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 65%, Lincoln 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Plymouth) and 43% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 32%; Lincoln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plymouth vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plymouth and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Plymouth's recent matches and 43% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plymouth and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Plymouth's recent games and 43% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Plymouth's recent matches and 73% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lincoln run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Plymouth 1-4 at Home Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.95 xG and Lincoln 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lincoln outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Lincoln attack 1.11 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 25% | Draw 27% | Lincoln 48%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 55%, Lincoln 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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